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European carbon market opportunity

Why carbon is of interest today.

Positive price outlook

As of July 2022, the price of European carbon allowances was €80 per tonne of CO2.[1] The EU plans to increase its 2030 emission reduction target, and expand the scope of the Emissions Trading System to include maritime emissions as well as imported emissions for certain goods. The legislative process for these reforms is expected to conclude in 2022. Analysts forecast prices of up to €150 by 2030[2]

* Past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results

1 Data from ICIS as of 14th June 2022
2 Analysts’ high-low forecasts compiled by Carbon Pulse

Low correlation to other asset classes

Historically, European carbon allowances have exhibited a low correlation to other asset classes, such as equities or fixed income. The correlation of carbon prices to other energy commodities in Europe can vary, depending on broader energy market conditions and, in particular, changes in electricity generation spreads..

Learn about EU carbon markets
Key Facts YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Incept.
Government Bonds 0.35 0.22 0.09 0.05 0.04
10yr BUND 0.30 0.21 0.15 0.11 0.07
10yr US Treasuries 0.20 0.14 0.21 0.17 0.05
Equities
MSCI World 0.24 0.23 0.36 0.27 0.20
S&P 500 0.17 0.18 0.31 0.23 0.16
EuroStoxx 50 0.40 0.33 0.39 0.30 0.18
EuroStoxx50 ($) 0.44 0.37 0.42 0.33 0.24
Commodities
Coal (AP12) 0.00 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06
NatGas (Henry Hub) -0.02 0.06 0.09 0.05 0.05
Gold -0.05 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.03
WTI -0.12 0.00 0.19 0.17 0.16
S&P GSCI -0.19 -0.03 0.22 0.19 0.18
Corporate Bonds
US Agg -0.18 -0.16 -0.05 -0.04 -0.02
US HY 0.13 0.13 0.26 0.21 0.15
Real Estate
MSCI US REIT 0.18 0.16 0.30 0.21 0.13

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Resource centre

New to carbon allowances?

Read our overview of the EU Emissions Trading System to understand how European carbon Allowances are designed to help decarbonise industry.

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